KASB Research Blog - Ted Carter

KASB Research Blog - Ted Carter

KASB Enrollment Projections Indicate Slight Decline Through 2023-24 

KASB’s annual enrollment projection indicates that enrollment numbers will gradually decline from 499,034 in 2018-19 to 490,383 in 2023-24, which is a 1.7 percent decline in overall enrollment. The following table shows the total numbers for each year and the percent change from the previous year:  Year  Total  % Change  2007-08  468,704    2008-09  470,316  0.3%  2009-10  475,373  1.1%  2010-11  485,082  2.0%  2011-12  486,956  0.4%  2012-13  489,582  0.5%  2013-14  496,903  1.5%  2014-15  497,778  0.2%  2015-16  496,739  -0.2%  2016-17  495,356  -0.3%  2017-18  498,317  0.6%  2018-19  499,034  0.1%  2019-20  498,705  -0.1%  2020-21  496,842  -0.4%  2021-22  495,427  -0.3%  2022-23  494,333  -0.2%  2023-24  490,383  -0.8%   KASB’s estimate does not take into consideration things such as commercial and residential development or other factors that could influence increases or decreases in student enrollment within public school districts.  A ratio is calculated between county-level live birth rates and first grade enrollment within each district seven years later across the most recent five years, then that [...]

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Distributions and Deviations and Ranges, Oh My!

Recently, I shared an article on averages and how they can be misleading. This article will expand on that and talk about how the nature of the data being represented can have a huge impact on the averages being discussed.  Previously, we talked about the mean (the mathematical average calculated by adding up all the numbers and dividing by the count of numbers), the median (the middle number in a series of numbers), and the mode (the most commonly occurring number). The things we will talk about today could impact all three of these types of averages, but we are [...]

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On Average, the Average Average isn’t as Average as the Average Person Thinks…

In what some are calling the "Post-Fact World," it is critical that we work to be informed consumers of information.  To that end, I thought it might be useful to share some thoughts and information on the notion of "average" amounts and why you need to look at reported averages very closely to make sure you understand what they mean. First, let's talk about what the word "Average" means. Merriam-Webster says Average is "a : a single value (such as a mean, mode, or median) that summarizes or represents the general significance of a set of unequal values." Wikipedia says Average is [...]

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The Devil’s in the Demographics

This scatterplot shows the relationship between the percent eligible for Free or Reduced-Price Lunch within a school and the percent performing at Grade Level or Above on the 2017 KS State Assessments (Reading and Mathematics).  We all want to be able to compare things.  Humans have a drive to qualify the world around them by determining what is better and what is worse.  The problem is, we often make these judgments without considering all the pertinent facts. Take school performance, for example.  What if you wanted to make a Report Card that compared schools on state assessment results?  What would you [...]

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Kansas Enrollment Projections 2017-18 Enhanced

Earlier this year, KASB released its annual Statewide Enrollment Projections along with district-level projections by grade and free/reduced-price lunch status.  The report can be found here, and the online tool allowing you to select one or more districts can be found here. Recently, KASB gathered demographics data from KSDE's report card data, and has incorporated this into the enrollment projections to provide state and district-level projections for gender, race/ethnicity, economically disadvantaged students, English Language Learner (ELL) students, migrant students, and students with disabilities. This data was available for the 2012-13, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16, and 2016-17 school years.  KASB calculated the percent [...]

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NAEP Limitations and Cautions

Every other year when the NAEP results come out, there is a lot of discussion and debate about the national examination.  Many put a lot of stock in the data it provides, as it is pretty much the only national test with results from every state that can be used to make comparisons of student performance across the country.  However, there are some limitations to the NAEP exam and some cautions that should be noted in terms of how the results are used. In 2009, researchers from the Buros Center for Testing at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln (my graduate school) [...]

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Mind the Gap

Last time, we talked about the difference between Kansas and all Public Schools in the U.S. in terms of the NAEP reading and math assessments for 4th and 8th grade.  This analysis looked at the values for all students. Today, we are going to look at the gap in performance between those who qualify for free or reduced-price lunches under the National School Lunch Program versus those who do not qualify.  For public school students in the nation, this is the closest thing we have to a direct measure of students' socioeconomic status.  The gap between performance for high and [...]

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How Kansas Compares to the Nation’s Public Schools on NAEP

Introduction The 2017 NAEP results were made available this week, so many are digging through the data to try and make sense of what it might tell us.  This article is another attempt to do just that. KASB is frequently asked to speak to how Kansas students are doing.  It would make sense to answer this question by comparing Kansas public school students to all public school students in the nation, and to focus not on the scores and percentages themselves, but on how much above or below the nation Kansas students perform.  Therefore, for this analysis, I am presenting the difference between the Mean Scores, Percent at Basic [...]

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The Education Commission of the States – Recent Research

I sometimes use the Sticky Note application on my desktop computer.  Not to store all my passwords, of course, but to keep track of interesting articles or studies that I want to look into "when I have time."  One of my favorite sources for such articles is the Education Commission of the States.  The commission was started in the mid-sixties as a way for scholars and policy makers to share information and ideas across the country.   Today they produce great research and analysis on education policy and education system characteristics in each of the 50 states.  Below are five studies they [...]

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KASB Calendar Survey Data – Changes from 2016-17 to 2017-18

KASB recently released the 2017 Annual Calendar Survey Report, where we describe the information from districts related to the 2017-18 school year and all school years back to 2001-02.  In it, we discuss trends across this period, but do not focus on the changes from last year to this year.  In this post, we will talk about what has apparently changed since last year, and why these changes might have happened. Note that the data being used for the annual report and for this post represents 97% of the districts for 2016-17, and 77% of the districts for 2017-18, so some of the differences could be due to the districts [...]

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