Earlier this year, KASB released its annual Statewide Enrollment Projections along with district-level projections by grade and free/reduced-price lunch status. The report can be found here, and the online tool allowing you to select one or more districts can be found here.
Recently, KASB gathered demographics data from KSDE’s report card data, and has incorporated this into the enrollment projections to provide state and district-level projections for gender, race/ethnicity, economically disadvantaged students, English Language Learner (ELL) students, migrant students, and students with disabilities.
This data was available for the 2012-13, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16, and 2016-17 school years. KASB calculated the percent change from one year to the next for these five years, then averaged them together to determine the 2017-18 values. For 2018-19 through 2022-23, a five-year rolling average percent change was used to calculated the values.
It is important to note that these demographic indicators come from the state’s assessment and accountability data, and may reflect a slightly different population than the headcount enrollment numbers, based on funding, that are used for the overall enrollment projection counts.
The results at the state level are as follows:
The data suggests there will be no change in the percent breakouts for gender, with just slightly over half of students (51.5%) male.
There is a growing percent of the student population reported as Hispanic, increasing from 17.8% in 2012-13 to 19.5% in 2016-17. This trend is expected to continue, with the projections indicating the percent will increase to 21.8% by 2022-23. Students reported as white or black are expected to decrease, but students reported in the remaining race categories, taken collectively, are expected to increase.
From 2012-13 to 2016-17, the percent of Kansas students reported as economically disadvantaged decreased from 50.0% to 48.3%. These projections suggest that by 2022-23, the percent could be down to 45.1%.