Kansas Enrollment Projections 2017-18 Enhanced

Kansas Enrollment Projections 2017-18 Enhanced

Earlier this year, KASB released its annual Statewide Enrollment Projections along with district-level projections by grade and free/reduced-price lunch status.  The report can be found here, and the online tool allowing you to select one or more districts can be found here.

Recently, KASB gathered demographics data from KSDE’s report card data, and has incorporated this into the enrollment projections to provide state and district-level projections for gender, race/ethnicity, economically disadvantaged students, English Language Learner (ELL) students, migrant students, and students with disabilities.

This data was available for the 2012-13, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16, and 2016-17 school years.  KASB calculated the percent change from one year to the next for these five years, then averaged them together to determine the 2017-18 values.  For 2018-19 through 2022-23, a five-year rolling average percent change was used to calculated the values.

It is important to note that these demographic indicators come from the state’s assessment and accountability data, and may reflect a slightly different population than the headcount enrollment numbers, based on funding, that are used for the overall enrollment projection counts.

The results at the state level are as follows:

Gender

The data suggests there will be no change in the percent breakouts for gender, with just slightly over half of students (51.5%) male.

Race/Ethnicity

There is a growing percent of the student population reported as Hispanic, increasing from 17.8% in 2012-13 to 19.5% in 2016-17.  This trend is expected to continue, with the projections indicating the percent will increase to 21.8% by 2022-23.  Students reported as white or black are expected to decrease, but students reported in the remaining race categories, taken collectively, are expected to increase.

Economically Disadvantaged

From 2012-13 to 2016-17, the percent of Kansas students reported as economically disadvantaged decreased from 50.0% to 48.3%.  These projections suggest that by 2022-23, the percent could be down to 45.1%.

ELL

The ELL data shows the biggest change across this time period.  From 2012-13 to 2016-17, the percent of students receiving English Language Learner services increased from 8.4% to 11.8%.  If this trend continues, 17.3% of students could be receiving such services by 2022-23.  
However, it is important to note that the reporting and testing requirements have changed in recent years, as have the effectiveness of identifying students needing such services.  So, increases in the past few years may not continue throughout the projection period.  

Migrant

The percent of students identified as migrant continues to be very small – going from 1.8% to 1.9% in the actual data and projected to increase to 2.1% by 2022-23.  

Students with Disabilities

The percent of students with disabilities increased slightly in the actual data, and is projected to continue this gradual increase, going from 14.4% in 2016-17 to 15.5% in 2022-23.
Next year’s projections will include these demographic categories, along with any others that KASB can find to include.  KASB also hopes to address the issue of virtual school enrollment numbers, which are reported by KSDE at the district level and can inflate projections for certain districts.