By Mark Tallman

Kansas school district enrollment fell by about 2,000 students, or 0.4 percent, in the 2024-25 school year compared to the previous year. The decline is primarily due to falling birth rates and to more Kansans leaving the state than moving in, indicating further loss of enrollment is likely.

This statewide enrollment decline is not uniform. Some districts have added students and will continue to do so. But about two-thirds of all districts have lost enrollment over the past five years. Because public school funding is tied to enrollment, which affects staffing, facilities and programs, this trend may increase the need for long-term planning based on enrollment trends and contingencies.

After long-term growth followed by stability, enrollment has dropped about three percent over five years.

Since current enrollment records began in 1992-93, the total number of students in Kansas public schools rose gradually from about 450,000 to nearly 493,000 in 2014-15. (Kansas State Department of Education’s Data Central website: “Kansas K-12 Reports.” Use drop-down menu for Headcount Enrollment (Totals Only), Public Schools, All Years.)

Some of the increase was due to population growth, but it was also due to changes in school programs and outcomes. According to the U.S. Digest of Education Statistics, the number of pre-kindergarten students in Kansas public schools increased from 2,529 in 2002 (Digest 2002, table 38) to 24,425 in 2022 (Digest 2023, table 203.40). Kansas also reduced the dropout rate from 3.1 percent in 2002 (Digest 2004, table 104) to 2.1 percent in 2019 (Digest 2023, table 219.5), which kept more students in school and increased the graduation rate from 85 percent in 2012 to 89 percent in 2022 (Digest 2023, table 219.46).

Enrollment stabilized between 490,000 and 492,000 from 2014-15 through 2019-20. Total school district enrollment was near its peak at 492,102 in 2019-20, when the COVID pandemic struck. It dropped to 476,435 the following year when parents kept more students home, especially at the lower grades. Enrollment recovered to 479,743 in 2021-22 and 484,060 in 2022-23 but has declined for the past two years.

Since 2019-20, total school district enrollment has dropped by over 15,296, or 3.1 percent. While there are many likely factors in this drop, it reflects a long-term decline in the school-aged population. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the estimated Kansas population under 18 has declined by over 36,000, or five percent since 2014-15. The number of children under the age of five has dropped by over 30,000, or 15 percent. (Information on Kansas population and trends can be found at the U.S. Census Bureau’s Advanced Search site, table SO101 using filters for “Geography” and “Populations and People.”)

There will likely be fewer Kansas school children to be educated in the next few years.

The primary reason is that Kansans are having fewer babies, according to data from the Kansas Department of Health and Environment’s Annual Summary of Vital Statics for 2023. The Kansas birth rate (the number of live births per 1,000 population) has been declining since 2008, and the 2023 birth rate of 11.6 births per 1,000 was the lowest since records began in 1912 (summary page 3). Part of the drop is due to the aging Kansas population: the number of Kansans aged 65-74 increased by 78.2 percent over the past 20 years, while the overall population increased just 7.5 percent (page 2-3). But the fertility rate, the number of births per 1,000 females in the main child-bearing age bracket (15-44) was also the lowest in the past 20 years (page 4).

The teen pregnancy rate is also down. The 2023 pregnancy rate for mothers under 20 was 10.6 pregnancies per 1,000 females in the age group, the lowest pregnancy rate for this age group in the past twenty years, and down from a peak of 28.6 pregnancies per 1,000 just 15 years ago in 2008 (page 6). 

Not only are Kansans having fewer babies; more people are moving out of the state than are moving in. According to the KDHE report, net in-migration (more people moving in than out) accounted for 67,000 of the population increase in the 1990s, but only about 7,000 of the population increase in the 2000s; and in the 2010s, Kansas became a net out-migration state, with 26,000 more persons moving out than moving in (page 2).

Each of these trends could change in the future, but they indicate that each incoming “class” of students by age is likely to be smaller than previous years, and that the total population of school-aged children and youth that public schools draw from will likely continue to decline for the foreseeable future

Enrollment changes vary significantly among districts.

While total enrollment statewide has declined by 3.1 percent over the past five years, some districts have had more significant losses, while some have experienced increased enrollment. (Individual district enrollment can be found at KSDE’s Data Central site under K-12 Reports; using drop-down menu for Headcount Enrollment, Totals by District/Organization, Public Schools and selected year.)

Most districts lost students over the past five years. In 2024-25, 187 districts representing over 75 percent of statewide enrollment had fewer students than in 2019-20, while 95 districts had more students and four had exactly the same number of students.

Twelve districts increased by more than 20 percent, but in several cases the increase was due to a significant expansion of virtual school enrollment, rather than growth in the district’s actual resident population. Fourteen districts lost more than 20 percent of their enrollment, and all are among the smallest districts in the state, with each now having fewer than 300 students. The smallest district in the state by enrollment, Healy USD 468 in Lane County, dropped from 44 students to 2, and dissolved at the end of the 2024 school year. This is the first drop in the number of school districts since 2011.

Interestingly, the biggest overall decline occurred in both the largest and smallest districts in the state.  The seven largest districts by enrollment, each with over 10,000 students, declined by a total of 6.2 percent over the past five years, and by 5.9 percent over the past 10 years; compared to a state total decline of 3.1 percent over the past five years and 3.3 percent over the past 10. In fact, every district over 10,000 had an enrollment decline over the past five years. On the other hand, districts with fewer than 500 declined a total of 4.9 percent over the past five years and 9.4 percent over the past 10.

Districts with the least decline were those between 1,600 and 10,000, which lost a total of just 0.4 percent over the past five years and had a slight gain of 0.9 percent over the past 10 years. Finally, districts between 500 and 1,600 students dropped a total of 2.0 percent over the past five years and 4.0 percent over the past 10.

Another way to look at this change is by the population density of the county where the district is headquartered, rather than the enrollment of the district. (These county peer groups are from the Vital Statistics report, pages 263-264). Over half of public-school students (260,571) attend 34 districts in the five counties identified as “Urban.” These districts increased by over 5,000 students from 2015 to 2020 but declined by 11,514 (4.2 percent) over the past five years and 2.4 percent over the past ten.

The next largest group is 76 districts with 81,237 students in 20 counties designated as “Dense Rural,” which lost 2,814 students (3.3 percent) over the past five years and 4,332 (5.1 percent) over the past 10.
The 43 districts with 77,658 students in 10 counties considered “Semi-Urban” had a slight decline of 393 students (2.2 percent) over the past five years and lost 4,265 (5.2 percent) over the past 10.
The 73 districts with 38,695 students in 32 counties designed as “Rural” declined by 706 students (1.5 percent) over the past five and 2,254 (5.5 percent) over the past ten years.

However, the 60 districts with 20,056 in 34 counties designated as “Frontier” actually increased by 1,542 (8.3 percent) over the past five and 1,155 (6.1 percent) over the past ten years, although a portion of that increase is due to growing virtual school enrollment.

Schools face more competition as more students attend outside of their local district.

School districts are required to enroll and educate every school-aged child who resides in that district, unless they have been suspended or expelled. However, although children are required to attend some type of schooling under the state’s compulsory attendance law, they are not required to attend public schools in their district of residence. As a result, while the school-aged population is a major factor in a district’s enrollment, the number of students can be affected by parental choices.

First, students can attend a public school in another district. For decades, it was up to the “receiving” school district to decide whether to accept non-resident students, how many, and for how long. In 2024, a new state “open enrollment” law took effect that requires districts to determine capacity for schools and grades and allow non-residents to attend up to that capacity. Students admitted under that law must be allowed to remain enrolled until they graduate.

Five years ago in 2019-20, nearly 22,000 students were non-residents of the district where they attended, equal to about 4.5 percent of total enrolment. That percentage varied significantly, from districts that did not allow any non-residents to districts where more than 25 percent of students were non-residents. Over the past five years, that number increased to nearly 24,500 in 2023-24 but decreased slightly to 24,250 during the 2024-25 school year. Only 1,519, or six percent of non-resident enrollment, participated in the open enrollment program; the others attended based on previous policies. Some officials speculate that the number decreased slightly as districts are more cautious about the impact of non-residents admitted through open enrollment who can remain in the new district until graduation, regardless of capacity.

As overall enrollment has declined, non-resident enrollment has increased from about 4.5 percent to 5.0 percent of total enrollment. (Non-resident enrollment data presented to Kansas State Board of Education, November 2024.)

A second choice for students is attending virtual schools operated by districts where they are not residents. The number of “full-time” students in virtual schools has increased from a full-time equivalent of 5,658 in 2020 to 9,857 in 23-24 and “part-time” FTE students increased from 1,051 to 1,486. If the combined total of students in virtual programs were counted as a separate school district, it would be one of the eight largest in the state. (This data is collected from school district Legal Max budget reports on the KSDE school finance website.)

Not all virtual students are non-residents, and districts may operate virtual programs only for their own students. Like non-resident students, virtual school students do not change the overall public school enrollment totals but affect the enrollment of individual districts. 

Third, students can attend non-public or private schools that are accredited by the State Board of Education through the same system as public schools. These schools are required to report enrollment. Throughout the 1990s and 2000s, total enrollment in these schools – primarily the state’s Catholic and Lutheran schools – was fairly steady at around 30,000 students. This began dropping in 2009, falling to 26,449 in 2020. Like public schools, their enrollment dropped after COVID, falling to 25,786 in 2021, but unlike public schools, their enrollment has nearly rebounded to the 2020 level: 26,406 last year. (Data on overall and individual state accredited private school systems is available on the same basis as the public school system at the KSDE Data Central site.)

One factor in this rebound may be the state Tax Credit for Low Income Students Scholarship Program, which gives state income tax credits for contributions to organizations that provide scholarships for low-income students attending qualified private schools. These students must have previously attended public schools or are enrolling in school for the first time. The program began in 2016 with 109 scholarships. As the Legislature made changes to increase both eligible students and private schools, the number increased to 519 in 2020 and 2,360 last year (current year 2025-26 numbers are not available). Without these students, accredited private enrollment would likely be lower, since most of these students previously attended a public school. (The 1,841-student increase in this program equals about six percent of the loss in public school enrollment over this period.) However, some or all of these students might have chosen to attend private schools even without the scholarship program, so the specific impact is not known.

Finally, students may attend private schools, including homeschooling, which are not accredited by the state. Because these schools are not required to report enrollment data to the state, their numbers can only be estimated by subtracting public and state-accredited private school enrollment from the school-age population, which is also an estimate. Census Bureau estimates for the current year are not available, but for 2023-24, it appears approximately 6.5 percent of the population aged 5-17 was not in public or accredited private schools (compared to about 5.1 percent in accredited private schools and 88.4 percent in public schools). That is an increase from 3.6 percent in 2020, the year before COVID, but a decrease from 7.9 percent in 2022. This estimate would also include school-age children who are not attending any school.

(To make this estimate KASB used Information on Kansas population and trends from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Advanced Search site, using filters for “Geography” and “Populations and People” to access table SO101 for Kansas. For the 2023-24 school year, the estimated 5-17-year-old population was 516,934. The total enrollment of public and state-accredited private schools was adjusted to remove Pre-K and “non-graded” enrollment that are typically outside the 5-17 age group. Because KSDE does not provide grade-level enrollment for populations of less than 10, estimates had to be made for this adjustment. The result was an estimated 457,117 public school students and 26,309 private school students in the traditional 5-17 age group, leaving 33,508 children not in public or accredited private schools. Also note: Census estimates may be changed by future revision. These are the most current estimates at the time of writing.)

Implications for school districts

First, the Kansas declining birth rate and net-outmigration mean a shrinking pool of school-aged students unless these trends reverse. While some districts may grow or remain stable, most districts are likely to face declining enrollment, which is occurring across all sizes of districts and communities.

Second, under the school finance formula, fewer students mean less funding. Unfortunately, this means districts may be forced to reduce staff and cut other costs. Reducing staff and programs is often painful, controversial and requires advance planning to be most effective.

Third, for very small districts, declining enrollment could make continuing to operate and meet state requirements or parental expectations difficult or impossible. It also may increase Legislative interest in incentives or requirements for consolidation. Although the Kansas Legislature has conducted repeated studies on school organization since the district unification acts in the 1960s, without major action, the state is in the midst of the most sustained period of enrollment decline in decades. Past proposals have included both mandates and incentives. The most significant mandate was in the 1960s when the state required districts to meet certain standards of geographic size or enrollment, resulting in the basic organization of “unified school districts” in effect today. Incentives have included protecting district budgets from reductions for a period of time if they voluntarily combine.

Fourth, public schools are operating in a period of increased competition for students. The percentage of students moving to other districts, attending virtual schools, or private and home schools has increased over the past five years.  Policy choices at the state and national level have expanded programs to assist students in attending different schools. This creates challenges and opportunities for public schools to strengthen relationships with children and families, and tailor programs to meet their priorities.